Abe Victory: A New Sunrise

“Heartiest greetings to my dear friend @AbeShinzo on his big election win. Look forward to further strengthen India— Japan relations with him,” Prime minister of India Narendra  Modi tweeted on 23 Oct 2017.

 White House has also announced President Donald Trump’s first visit to Asia as U.S. leader in Nov 2017 — a trip full of potential minefields — as he seeks to firm up the country’s alliance with Japan and heap pressure on nuclear-armed North Korea. The visit will come just two weeks after Sunday’s Lower House election, in which Abe returned to the helm.

The consequences could be huge. Abe, a nationalist by Japanese standards, has long been pushing for Japan to build up its military and prepare to use force well beyond its borders if necessary. That means amending Japan’s post-World War II constitution, which commits the country to a pacifist foreign policy. A large enough victory in this election allows Abe to push through some version of “constitutional revision,”  putting the country down the road to remilitarization.

The impact would resonate far outside Japan’s borders & could end up having major long-term consequences for a vital part of the world. China, in particular, has long been deeply concerned about the prospect of a fully militarized Japan — and would see any move toward it as a threat to its security. “Because of reasons of history, the international community, particularly Asian neighbors, have always paid close attention and been on alert to Japan’s military tendencies,” as mentioned by a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson after the May 2017 speech by Abe. Managing the resulting tensions would be a major challenge for American diplomacy in the region.

Japan’s constitution was written right after the country’s crushing defeat in World War II with the war’s horrific consequences in mind. It is almost unique among constitutions in essentially prohibiting Japan from having official armed forces. The text of Article IX, the provision enacting this prohibition, is especially strong:

       Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.

      In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.

In the years following the war, Japan faced a series of major security threats — most notably from China and North Korea. As a result, it started to build up its military capacities in 1954, calling the new branch “Self-Defense Forces” (SDF) to avoid constitutional problems. Today, Japan has the world’s eighth-largest defense budget; the SDF has more active-duty troops (2,27,000) than the French defence forces (2,03,000).

The Malabar exercise which  started in 1992 with the navies of US and India in the Indian Ocean now has  Japan as a permanent partner of the  exercise since 2007. A pronounced thrust on anti-submarine warfare (as the Indian Navy  recorded an "unusual surge" in the number of Chinese warships and submarines entering the Indian Ocean Region in the recent past) being exercised was clearly visible with Poseidon-8 long-range maritime patrol aircraft deployed. Beijing also appears to be trying to achieve dominance in the controversial South China Sea as Japan counters its claim . The massive Malabar naval exercise - is the most visible sign of tri nation partnership which emboldens Abe towards militarization of Japan.

Other major threat that Japan sees in near future is that of North Korea which had the audacity to launch two missiles over Japan in August & September this year. Abe’s bid to enshrine Japan’s military might comes amid growing concern about North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

How long will it take for the Japanese people to recollect  the phrase “Fukoku kyōhei”( Enrich the state, strengthen the military), Japan's national slogan during the Meiji period is anyone’s guess.  The ideology in Japanese empire that militarism should dominate the political and social life of the nation, and that the strength of the military is equal to the strength of a nation, will see a revival with Abe playing his cards well (as he has done so far). It will be a new sunrise for sure.