Saturday, October 21, 2017

Destination Djibouti - Is India in Time ?


  Ram Nath Kovind the President ofIndia visited Dijbouti City in Oct 2017, on his maiden trip abroad after assuming office. The President, is the first Indian leader to visit Djibouti and was received by Djiboutian Prime Minister Kamil Mohamed. India currently does not have an embassy in Djibouti. The president’s visit suggests that wisdom is finally coming and New Delhi is now revisiting its approach towards the region to re-engage strategically. The president's visit comes in the backdrop of Chinese  troops conducting their first live-fire military drills overseas on their base in strategically-vital Djibouti in Sep 2017 as a major display of military presence in the region. Is this the start of India’s efforts to contain China’s Indian Ocean agenda after it has consolidated its presence in Hambantota (Srilanka),Gwadar (Pakistan) and now in Djibuti; all vital for maritime supremacy in Indian Ocean.

    China’s enormous investment in CPEC, and port infrastructure in the Indian Ocean, serves much more than trade. It advances Beijing’s “String of Pearls” strategy, as well as its unofficial agenda to encircle India. On the Horn of Africa, too, Beijing has made its presence felt, with the opening of its first overseas military base at Djibouti. In smaller, poorer countries , China’s influence is based heavily on economic leverage, using its formidable financial resources to create a niche for itself by focusing on industrial cooperation, environmental protection and the reduction of poverty.  China has long been interested in the commercial and strategic potential of Hambantota,  Gwadar and Djibuti.
While the Indian Ocean is itself a crucial space, being the bridge between Africa and the Middle East on one side and Southeast Asia on the other, Hambantota is right in the middle of vital energy supply lines in the Indian Ocean, connecting the Middle East and East Asia. As China expands its maritime reach in the Indian Ocean, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands off the coast of India have gone high up on the priority list for New Delhi’s defence policy.

    China has  established its presence in neighboring Pakistan, with its port at Gwadar, which is also a vital link in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project under Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative.  Gwadar port  is considered a strategic location, giving China an access to the Gulf region and the Middle East. Chabahar port being operationalized in Iran in 2018 by India, at one end of North South Transport Corridor will be beneficial to India in countering Chinese presence in the Arabian Sea.  

    Djibouti's strategic position, in Bab el-Mandeb strait allows the country to rent some of its territory to foreign military bases. Bab-el-Mandeb acts as a strategic link between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal the backbone of sea trade.  The secret to Djibouti's continued global importance and its success in recent decades lies in its strategic position on the Bab el-Mandeb strait and its status as the lone maritime entry and exit point for its dynamic neighbor, Ethiopia. Djibouti maintains several advantages in the region, including its relative stability and its current ports and infrastructure. Competition for access to interior African trade and resources will intensify, and the tiny country will be pressed to find additional investment as it tries to hold on to its status as a regional trading hub. Over the years, Djibouti has moved beyond France after its independence in 1977 and opened its territory to other powers. The United States,  Japan, Italy and China  have facilities in Djibouti, and Saudi Arabia has reportedly signed agreements allowing for its eventual presence there. China remains a  long-term strategic partner for Djibouti as trade competition intensifies across the region.


    Is India in time to invest and exploit the willingness of the tiny country to get a toe-hold for commercial & strategic base in the most important trade corridor? With limited resources at hand India could strengthen relations on the basis of providing skills, educational and medical facilities, which are perceived as India’s three areas of greatest strength. India has been deploying one Naval ship in the Gulf of Aden on anti-piracy tasking since October 2008. The IN ships escort merchant ships through the 490 nautical mile long Internationally Recommended Transit Corridor (IRTC).  It will not be too late for India to look for an opportunity to set up a base for anti-piracy monitoring as a start.

7 comments:

ithink said...

Enterprise, Policy innovations and strengthening our educational infrastructures are key issues that have to be taken up on a war footing if we have to provide our Human Resources in a big way to these newer regions instead of using expensive expansion of our military presence which should be there but in a limited way

Unknown said...

The cultural heritage that India shares with these countries remain unexploited which requires urgent and emergent rethinking . If we want to achieve dominance as a devloped country by 2030 as perceived by the technocrats then cultural rejuvenation will act as the proverbial Ram Baan in contrast to financial and strategic over reach. The early 1900 had seen massive exploitation with respect to human exodus in form of slaves for these erstwhile British provinces and this needs to be rekindled . A programme such as Back to the Roots need to be formulated to achieve dominating success

दीपम चटर्जी said...

Great analysis, Jai.

दीपम चटर्जी said...

Great analysis, Jai.

RESEARCH KK said...

It's time India takes necessary steps to become the fifth country to establish foothold at Djibuti. The larger point being that MEA itself needs a revamp and incorporate more strategic and military minds to make a holistic appraisal of such issues. FICCI needs to come in and evaluate the business opportunities available. Can we negotiate to create a hub of activities. Maybe we can aim at making it a nodal hub for 'Springboard Activity' in business health and culture with adequate protection through Indian Navy.

jai said...

Well said Nishit, Anil & KK . Point remains that we are losing precious days, it is time to preempt ansd strategise moves rater than take them as they come. Business is the Key stone and a SWOT analysis is important before taking the bite. Thanks Deepam for the encouragement.

rajiv said...

Wonderful news.