Abe Victory: A New Sunrise

“Heartiest greetings to my dear friend @AbeShinzo on his big election win. Look forward to further strengthen India— Japan relations with him,” Prime minister of India Narendra  Modi tweeted on 23 Oct 2017.

 White House has also announced President Donald Trump’s first visit to Asia as U.S. leader in Nov 2017 — a trip full of potential minefields — as he seeks to firm up the country’s alliance with Japan and heap pressure on nuclear-armed North Korea. The visit will come just two weeks after Sunday’s Lower House election, in which Abe returned to the helm.

The consequences could be huge. Abe, a nationalist by Japanese standards, has long been pushing for Japan to build up its military and prepare to use force well beyond its borders if necessary. That means amending Japan’s post-World War II constitution, which commits the country to a pacifist foreign policy. A large enough victory in this election allows Abe to push through some version of “constitutional revision,”  putting the country down the road to remilitarization.

The impact would resonate far outside Japan’s borders & could end up having major long-term consequences for a vital part of the world. China, in particular, has long been deeply concerned about the prospect of a fully militarized Japan — and would see any move toward it as a threat to its security. “Because of reasons of history, the international community, particularly Asian neighbors, have always paid close attention and been on alert to Japan’s military tendencies,” as mentioned by a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson after the May 2017 speech by Abe. Managing the resulting tensions would be a major challenge for American diplomacy in the region.

Japan’s constitution was written right after the country’s crushing defeat in World War II with the war’s horrific consequences in mind. It is almost unique among constitutions in essentially prohibiting Japan from having official armed forces. The text of Article IX, the provision enacting this prohibition, is especially strong:

       Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.

      In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.

In the years following the war, Japan faced a series of major security threats — most notably from China and North Korea. As a result, it started to build up its military capacities in 1954, calling the new branch “Self-Defense Forces” (SDF) to avoid constitutional problems. Today, Japan has the world’s eighth-largest defense budget; the SDF has more active-duty troops (2,27,000) than the French defence forces (2,03,000).

The Malabar exercise which  started in 1992 with the navies of US and India in the Indian Ocean now has  Japan as a permanent partner of the  exercise since 2007. A pronounced thrust on anti-submarine warfare (as the Indian Navy  recorded an "unusual surge" in the number of Chinese warships and submarines entering the Indian Ocean Region in the recent past) being exercised was clearly visible with Poseidon-8 long-range maritime patrol aircraft deployed. Beijing also appears to be trying to achieve dominance in the controversial South China Sea as Japan counters its claim . The massive Malabar naval exercise - is the most visible sign of tri nation partnership which emboldens Abe towards militarization of Japan.

Other major threat that Japan sees in near future is that of North Korea which had the audacity to launch two missiles over Japan in August & September this year. Abe’s bid to enshrine Japan’s military might comes amid growing concern about North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

How long will it take for the Japanese people to recollect  the phrase “Fukoku kyōhei”( Enrich the state, strengthen the military), Japan's national slogan during the Meiji period is anyone’s guess.  The ideology in Japanese empire that militarism should dominate the political and social life of the nation, and that the strength of the military is equal to the strength of a nation, will see a revival with Abe playing his cards well (as he has done so far). It will be a new sunrise for sure.

Destination Djibouti - Is India in Time ?

  Ram Nath Kovind the President ofIndia visited Dijbouti City in Oct 2017, on his maiden trip abroad after assuming office. The President, is the first Indian leader to visit Djibouti and was received by Djiboutian Prime Minister Kamil Mohamed. India currently does not have an embassy in Djibouti. The president’s visit suggests that wisdom is finally coming and New Delhi is now revisiting its approach towards the region to re-engage strategically. The president's visit comes in the backdrop of Chinese  troops conducting their first live-fire military drills overseas on their base in strategically-vital Djibouti in Sep 2017 as a major display of military presence in the region. Is this the start of India’s efforts to contain China’s Indian Ocean agenda after it has consolidated its presence in Hambantota (Srilanka),Gwadar (Pakistan) and now in Djibuti; all vital for maritime supremacy in Indian Ocean.

    China’s enormous investment in CPEC, and port infrastructure in the Indian Ocean, serves much more than trade. It advances Beijing’s “String of Pearls” strategy, as well as its unofficial agenda to encircle India. On the Horn of Africa, too, Beijing has made its presence felt, with the opening of its first overseas military base at Djibouti. In smaller, poorer countries , China’s influence is based heavily on economic leverage, using its formidable financial resources to create a niche for itself by focusing on industrial cooperation, environmental protection and the reduction of poverty.  China has long been interested in the commercial and strategic potential of Hambantota,  Gwadar and Djibuti.

While the Indian Ocean is itself a crucial space, being the bridge between Africa and the Middle East on one side and Southeast Asia on the other, Hambantota is right in the middle of vital energy supply lines in the Indian Ocean, connecting the Middle East and East Asia. As China expands its maritime reach in the Indian Ocean, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands off the coast of India have gone high up on the priority list for New Delhi’s defence policy.

    China has  established its presence in neighboring Pakistan, with its port at Gwadar, which is also a vital link in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project under Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative.  Gwadar port  is considered a strategic location, giving China an access to the Gulf region and the Middle East. Chabahar port being operationalized in Iran in 2018 by India, at one end of North South Transport Corridor will be beneficial to India in countering Chinese presence in the Arabian Sea.  

    Djibouti's strategic position, in Bab el-Mandeb strait allows the country to rent some of its territory to foreign military bases. Bab-el-Mandeb acts as a strategic link between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal the backbone of sea trade.  The secret to Djibouti's continued global importance and its success in recent decades lies in its strategic position on the Bab el-Mandeb strait and its status as the lone maritime entry and exit point for its dynamic neighbor, Ethiopia. Djibouti maintains several advantages in the region, including its relative stability and its current ports and infrastructure. Competition for access to interior African trade and resources will intensify, and the tiny country will be pressed to find additional investment as it tries to hold on to its status as a regional trading hub. Over the years, Djibouti has moved beyond France after its independence in 1977 and opened its territory to other powers. The United States,  Japan, Italy and China  have facilities in Djibouti, and Saudi Arabia has reportedly signed agreements allowing for its eventual presence there. China remains a  long-term strategic partner for Djibouti as trade competition intensifies across the region.

    Is India in time to invest and exploit the willingness of the tiny country to get a toe-hold for commercial & strategic base in the most important trade corridor? With limited resources at hand India could strengthen relations on the basis of providing skills, educational and medical facilities, which are perceived as India’s three areas of greatest strength. India has been deploying one Naval ship in the Gulf of Aden on anti-piracy tasking since October 2008. The IN ships escort merchant ships through the 490 nautical mile long Internationally Recommended Transit Corridor (IRTC).  It will not be too late for India to look for an opportunity to set up a base for anti-piracy monitoring as a start.