Mr Sharif, who was serving as prime minister
of Pakistan for a record third time, was less than a year away from becoming
the first in Pakistani history to complete a full term in office. He served as
prime minister from November 1990 to July 1993 and from February 1997 until he
was toppled in a bloodless coup in October 1999. This time the Supreme court of
Pakistan killed the dream and repeated history.. Nawaz Sharif has resigned as
prime minister of Pakistan following a decision by the country's Supreme Court
to disqualify him from office. The ruling came after a probe into his family's
wealth following the 2015 Panama Papers dump linking Mr Sharif's children to
offshore companies.He was the 18th prime minister of Pakistan. Not a single one
of the 17 prime ministers that preceded him have completed their full term in
office. The once Ex Prime minister who was once denied landing in Pakistan and
forced to return into exile in 2007 may now not be allowed to fly out of the
country. With the geopolitical scene not
being in favour of the terror haven even Saudi may not grant him
exile.
Will Pakistan Face a Coup Again ?
Pakistani Army has a considerable political
clout and the political parties in Pakistan are not yet in a position to challenge
the militarys grip over internal affairs. Over the years, Pakistans military
has begun to manipulate the national narrative as well. It has moved from a
military inc. to a media inc. and defines the local view of people regarding
India, which certainly doesnt paint India amicable. As the Pakistani Polity is
inherently weak, demonstrated by the military coups, a tough decision to put an
end to terrorist camps and along with it solving of border dispute is next to
impossible without militarys approval. The Pakistani identity is based on the
idea of hatred towards India. As remarked by a scholar, the discourse is shaped
by the trinity of "Allah, Army & America". To put an end to
terrorism, the radicalisation must be stopped and thus the Pakistani military
will lose its card of shaping regional politics through terror groups.
Politics in Pakistan is very
unpredictable. But at the moment it does not look like a coup is in the wings.
Simply because the military does not want to come in front again when it
can rule in proxy. Staging a coup means
automatic stoppage of US aid, both civil and military, and also various other
sanctions/suspensions form other countries/organizations. For a country which
needs regular foreign grants, which is not worth it any more. Moreover, the
army is tied up in FATA with terrorists and on the eastern border with India.
They can ill afford to divert resources to run the entire country.
Politically and socially - a coup works
against any progress Pakistan. Indeed even for India it makes most sense that
there is a stable and progressive neighbor since a stable and progressive society
will mean better economics in the
region.
So what would be best for India would not be a
military coup in Pakistan but rather the influence of the military to wane in
political matters (which seems unlikely in the near future). The coup, if it
happens, may be militarily headed
because it is the only institution in Pakistan that has the capability to pull
it off and cling onto it as well right now. The likelihood of this coup is,
like most things Pakistani, is
UNPREDICTABLE.
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